SylabUZ
Nazwa przedmiotu | Prognozowanie i symulacja |
Kod przedmiotu | 11.0-WK-IiED-PS-L-S14_pNadGenR3G4S |
Wydział | Wydział Matematyki, Informatyki i Ekonometrii |
Kierunek | Computer science and econometrics |
Profil | ogólnoakademicki |
Rodzaj studiów | drugiego stopnia z tyt. magistra |
Semestr rozpoczęcia | semestr zimowy 2020/2021 |
Semestr | 1 |
Liczba punktów ECTS do zdobycia | 7 |
Typ przedmiotu | obowiązkowy |
Język nauczania | polski |
Sylabus opracował |
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Forma zajęć | Liczba godzin w semestrze (stacjonarne) | Liczba godzin w tygodniu (stacjonarne) | Liczba godzin w semestrze (niestacjonarne) | Liczba godzin w tygodniu (niestacjonarne) | Forma zaliczenia |
Laboratorium | 30 | 2 | - | - | Zaliczenie na ocenę |
Wykład | 15 | 1 | - | - | Egzamin |
The aim of the course is to acquaint students with practical methods of forecasting and computer simulation of random phenomena based on econometric models.
Knowledge of the theory of probability, mathematical statistics, econometrics and the basics of programming.
Lecture
1. Discussion of the material scope of mathematical statistics and econometrics required for the course. (2 hours.)
2. Deterministic, stochastic simulation. Monte Carlo method. (4 hours)
3. Random number generators. The accuracy of the simulation. (1 hour)
4. Econometric forecast. Forecast error. (2 hours.)
5. Simple forecasting methods. Determination of dynamics indexes. (2 hours.)
6. Filtering of time series. Exponential smoothing of time series. (2 hours.)
7. Reasoning into the future on the basis of econometric models. (2 hours.)
a. Forecasting based on linear models. (2 hours.)
b. Forecasting based on nonlinear models. (2 hours.)
Laboratory
1. Overview of the R-project program and selected statistical packages. Introduction to programming techniques in R-project. (2 hours.)
2. Methods of entering and saving data. Analysis reporting techniques, graphical data presentation. (4 hours)
3. Simulation of selected random phenomena. Presentation of the results. (6 hours)
4. Simple forecast, Dynamics indices. Assessment of the distribution and parameters of the forecast error. Presentation of the results. (2 hours.)
5. Smoothing time series, forecast. Assessment of the distribution and parameters of the forecast error. Presentation of the results. (6 hours)
6. Forecast based on linear models. Forecast error. Presentation of the results. (5 hours)
7. Forecast based on nonlinear models. Forecast error. Presentation of the results. (5 hours)
Lecture - traditional.
Laboratory - At the beginning of the classes, the lecturer introduces students to the practical methods of analysis discussed in the lecture. Then students receive a task to be solved. Finally, the solutions are discussed.
Opis efektu | Symbole efektów | Metody weryfikacji | Forma zajęć |
1. Each student carries out a project that allows to assess whether he has achieved the learning outcomes to a minimum degree.
2. Written exam on forecasting and simulation methods.
The grade for the subject consists of the laboratory grade (60%) and the exam grade (40%). The condition for passing the course is a positive assessment from the laboratory and the exam.
Zmodyfikowane przez dr Jacek Bojarski, prof. UZ (ostatnia modyfikacja: 18-11-2020 21:07)